Ramp data shows AI token spend nearly flat in August and September
For the CFO of a bank renewing AI contracts
Ramp's data shows token spend grew 1.5% across August and September, after 42% growth in July from the previous month, TechCrunch reported on Nov. 6.1
Ramp lead economist Ara Kharazian told TechCrunch the slowdown is not a demand problem, because AI volumes are up, and pointed to price competition among model makers.1 In September, OpenAI cut API prices in half for GPT-6 Sol and GPT-6 Luna, according to TechCrunch. Anthropic also made reductions to pricing for Fable 5.1 and Opus 5.5, which the company said in a recent filing slashed revenue growth by about $600 million; the source does not say when Anthropic made the cuts.1
Kharazian said companies more advanced in using AI are more likely to use defaults that prevent use of very expensive models for long-running tasks, to impose budgets on employees, and to offload spend from standard and light models to cheaper light models via routers.1
He said the top 1% of firms, which hit $10,000 per employee per month at their summer peaks, came in slightly below that in August and September, and that this is enough to slow total revenue; median firms spend $12-$15 per employee per month and the top 10% spend $600-$1,000.1
October data showed a re-acceleration, with token spend up 8.9% from Sept. 23 to Oct. 23, but Kharazian said headwinds on spend growth remain strong.1
Bloomberg reported Friday that Anthropic's potential valuation fell from an estimated $2 trillion in early October to $1.2 to $1.3 trillion, and that OpenAI lowered its proposed valuation to $1.25 trillion from $1.4 trillion; TechCrunch cited Bloomberg, and we have not seen the Bloomberg report.1
Buyers of AI services appear to have leverage on price, so banks and fintechs may not need to accept long fixed-price commitments while rates keep falling. Lenders and investors exposed to model makers or AI-heavy borrowers should test revenue forecasts that assume the summer growth rates will continue.
Our take. Your teams run more AI work each month while OpenAI halves prices and Anthropic cuts its own to keep pace. That is a renewal where the buyer sets terms, from vendors whose forecasts assumed otherwise.
Action. Procurement: Cap AI vendor contract terms at 12 months and add price-reset clauses tied to published API price cuts.
From our records
- Claude (Anthropic)vendor · banks using it (21) Goldman, JPMorgan, BankUnited · alternatives Microsoft Copilot, ChatGPT Enterprise, Gemini Enterprise
- ChatGPT Enterprise (OpenAI)vendor · banks using it (14) Morgan Stanley, BNY, Customers Bank · alternatives Microsoft Copilot, Claude, Gemini Enterprise
- Rampfintech · company Business finance & infrastructure, founded 2019, United States